I am officially ice cold. I followed up the disaster that was Week 8 (which I’m still not talking about) with a losing slate in Week 9. This serves as an important reminder to everyone out there: being a winning bettor in the NFL is very, very difficult.
It’s hard to find value because the NFL is one of the most heavily bet leagues in the country. There’s an enormous amount of information available, and both sportsbooks and sharp bettors spend all week picking these games apart.
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The books are very good at pricing NFL bets, so the edges are difficult to find. I think there’s more room to find value in less-bet markets, like college basketball games featuring unranked and lesser-known schools.
Does that mean we’re going to quit? Of course not. A profitable season in NFL betting, especially when I’ve committed to five bets per week, is something worth bragging about. So the goal is to get back to profitability.
And that starts in Week 10.
Both of us get five selections from the same odds board, with no bet priced worse than -120. Odds were taken from the board supplied Thursday at noon ET.
Stakes are adjusted so every winning bet produces one unit of profit. For example, -110 requires risking 1.10 units, while +110 requires approximately 0.91 units. A push returns the stake and counts as zero units.
The Denver Broncos once again benefited from some questionable officiating, and it helped sink our Panthers bet. I’m not bitter, though. The Raiders and Vikings were clean whiffs, and the latter served as a very important reminder: never wager your hard-earned money on Carson Wentz.
If you remove GPT’s worst two weeks (Week 1 and Week 8), the robot is having an OK year: 18-16-1 and up 0.77 units. Unfortunately for the AI, we don’t just forget about the disasters. Unfortunately for me, too, because I’d love to dump that Week 8 stinker (which I’m still not talking about).
DAN: 21-23-1, -3.99 units
GPT: 19-25-1, -7.67 units
Dan Z.’s Plug Your Nose and Hit ‘Place Bet’ Bet of the Week: 5-3, +1.83 units
At least the Bucs got the Plug Your Nose bet back in the win column. Small victories.
Washington Commanders at New York Giants, Thursday Night Football
Dan’s analysis:
Betting a road team on Thursday Night Football is always scary, but I’m a Jayden Daniels truther. What can I say? J.J. McCarthy has given the New York Giants some life, and John Harbaugh remains one of the NFL’s best coaches. But New York has also been incredibly fortunate to reach 5-2-1, with four of those wins coming against the Cowboys, Titans, Cardinals and Eagles.
Washington hung tough against the Rams last week and held a second-half lead. I think Daniels wills the Commanders to a win Thursday night, but I’ll still take the two points just in case they tie again. That’s a joke. Kind of.
GPT’s analysis:
Jayden Daniels hurt the Giants with his legs in the first meeting, and that’s Washington’s best answer to New York’s blitz. I worry about how much the Commanders can get on the ground from anyone else with Jacory Croskey-Merritt out. I passed because even a three-point Giants win is enough to beat this ticket.
New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions, Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET, in Munich
Dan’s analysis:
New England headed to Munich a day ahead of Detroit, and I think that works in the Patriots’ favor. Plus, they’re coming off a terrible performance against the Green Bay Packers, and I think they’ll be extremely motivated to prove that was a fluke.
The Lions have won four straight, but I’m still not sold on Detroit. For an offense that’s supposed to be among the most explosive in the league, the Lions are actually winning with defense and haven’t scored more than 20 points in their past three games. I don’t think that’s going to work against Mike Vrabel’s squad, so I’ll take the points with the Pats.
GPT’s analysis:
I lean New England here. Drake Maye can attack a Detroit secondary that’s given up plenty of big plays, and getting the full field goal matters in a game I expect to be close. Detroit’s pass rush against New England’s protection is what kept me off it at -115.
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
Dan’s analysis:
The Browns just aren’t that good. I said it. Having a quarterback controversy between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders perfectly encapsulates where this team finds itself through nine weeks. Watson has been named the starter against Houston, but that doesn’t make me feel any better about Cleveland.
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The Texans haven’t been super impressive, either, but this team is much better than Cleveland. Even on the road, I think the Texans win by at least a touchdown.
GPT’s analysis:
Houston’s pass rush is the best reason to lay the points. The Texans have 29 sacks, and Cleveland has struggled to protect its quarterbacks. Deshaun Watson’s return gives the Browns a better chance to hang around, and their defense can keep the game close. I lean Houston, but I’d want -4½.
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
Dan’s analysis:
I know what you’re thinking: “Are you nuts?!” This is a game featuring Kyle McCord and Daniel Jones as the starting quarterbacks, and the Colts have traded Quenton Nelson, Josh Downs and Keenan Allen.
But I have a sneaking suspicion that Jonathan Taylor is due for a vintage JT game and will help the Colts put some points on the board. Plus, McCord and Jones are each liable to make a mistake or two that leads to easy scoring opportunities for the other team.
For the first time, Dan Z.’s Plug Your Nose and Hit ‘Place Bet’ Bet of the Week is a total. Because, again, we’re counting on teams quarterbacked by Kyle McCord and Daniel Jones to combine for at least 39 points.
GPT’s analysis:
This nearly made my card. Jonathan Taylor has a good matchup against a Miami front that lost Zach Sieler, and 20-19 gets you over. My hesitation is how much Miami can contribute in Kyle McCord’s first NFL start. Indianapolis also just traded Keenan Allen and Josh Downs, so both passing games come with questions.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday Night Football
Dan’s analysis:
Everyone is talking about the Bengals as Super Bowl contenders, myself included, and this pick doesn’t change my mind. I’m simply fading public perception. If Cincinnati is a true Super Bowl contender, why is it only a 3½-point favorite at home in a massive primetime showdown with the Paycor Stadium crowd ready to rock? It seems like the books know something we don’t.
I’m not a huge believer in Pittsburgh, but the Steelers typically play the Bengals well. Using Bet Legend Pro’s historical lines, Cincinnati is 5-10 against the spread against Pittsburgh under Zac Taylor, including 2-5 as a favorite and 1-2 as a home favorite. The Bengals are also 1-6 ATS in the matchup since 2023.
That’s enough for me to think Pittsburgh keeps this AFC North showdown within a field goal.
GPT’s analysis:
We’re on the same side here. Pittsburgh won the first meeting and comes off a bye while Cincinnati returns from Madrid. The Steelers can lean on the run and keep Joe Burrow off the field. Burrow’s success against zone gives Cincinnati a good chance to win, which is exactly why I want the hook. A Bengals field-goal win cashes for both of us.
For full transparency, I used GPT-6.1 Sol with the thinking effort set to ultra. I supplied the odds board captured Thursday at noon ET and gave it the following prompt:
“Pick your five best bets for Week 10 based on the odds provided. No bet can be priced worse than -120. Review every spread, total and moneyline that falls within those parameters and determine whether it belongs among your five picks. Explain exactly why you’re selecting each of the five bets. Also explain exactly why you’re passing on the eligible bets you don’t select. Use at least 10 different sources for each game so you have a broad understanding of everything surrounding each game. Before delivering the results, do a fact-check and ensure that everything is correct.”
Here’s what it came up with:
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
Atlanta’s offense runs through Bijan Robinson, and Kansas City has the run defense to keep him from dictating the game. That puts more on Michael Penix Jr. against a defense allowing 17.9 points per game. Patrick Mahomes practiced fully Wednesday after hurting his elbow, and Atlanta just traded safety Jessie Bates III.
The Falcons can get pressure, so Mahomes’ elbow is worth watching. At even money, I’m willing to lay the extra half-point because Kansas City has the better matchup on both sides of the ball.
GPT’s projected score: Chiefs 26, Falcons 20
Dan’s analysis:
Kansas City has a massive advantage at both head coach and quarterback, but I’m wary of laying three points and the hook with the Chiefs as a road favorite in a game where the public also figures to want to hammer the Chiefs.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
Minnesota has scored 16, 15 and six points in its last three games. Its defense still leads the NFL at 14.5 points allowed per game. If Kirk Cousins starts, he’ll have only a few days to get reacquainted with the offense after Tuesday’s trade. Green Bay also expects to be without Josh Jacobs after he fractured a finger.
Jordan Love just threw for 372 yards, and the first meeting produced 61 points. I’m still taking the under because Minnesota can make things harder on Love and has struggled to finish drives of its own.
GPT’s projected score: Packers 21, Vikings 17
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Dan’s analysis:
I like this pick. With the Packers coming off a 45-point explosion against the Patriots, this is the perfect time to fade what we saw most recently. The Vikings defense is legit and Minnesota figures to be relatively conservative on offense with Kirk Cousins making his 2026 debut for the team.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
Buffalo leads the NFL at 32 points per game, and James Cook gets a Jets defense that has allowed more than 140 rushing yards per game over its last four. The Jets settled for four field goals against Kansas City last week. That’s a problem if Josh Allen and Cook build an early lead.
Buffalo is on a short week and has injuries up front, so there’s some risk in laying eight on the road. I’ll take the matchup, with a push if the Bills win by exactly eight.
GPT’s projected score: Bills 31, Jets 20
Dan’s analysis:
Betting against the Bills bit me last week, so this was an easy pass for me. Obviously, Buffalo deserves to be a heavy favorite, but I couldn’t bring myself to lay this many points on the road in a divisional game.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
Both offenses rank in the top six in scoring, so I understand why the total is this high. I’m counting on San Francisco’s defense to keep Dallas from doing its share. The 49ers allow 19.5 points per game, and the Cowboys lost tight end Jake Ferguson to a knee injury.
San Francisco could score in the 30s against this Dallas defense. That’s the biggest risk, but 56½ gives us room for both teams to score. The 49ers can put up 31 and Dallas can score 24 and the under still cashes.
GPT’s projected score: 49ers 30, Cowboys 24
Dan’s analysis:
I like this pick from a pure numbers standpoint because 56½ points is a ton for an NFL game. In fact, if the number closes here, it would be the highest total in the league this season. Both teams can score, obviously, but when a game can finish 30-24 and still hit the under, I’d rather be on that side.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday Night Football
GPT’s analysis:
Pittsburgh won the first meeting 30-27 and comes off a bye while Cincinnati returns from Madrid. The Steelers allow 18 points per game and have a favorable rushing matchup that can help keep Joe Burrow on the sideline.
Burrow is the reason I want the hook. He completes a league-best 74.7% of his passes against zone, and Pittsburgh plays zone on more than 84% of opposing dropbacks. Cincinnati can win that matchup and take the game by a field goal. Pittsburgh +3½ still cashes.
GPT’s projected score: Bengals 24, Steelers 21
Dan’s analysis:
Well, if you want my analysis on this pick, just read what I wrote when I made the same pick. Theoretically, I should be more confident now, but suddenly I’m worried. That can’t be good, right?
OK, that’s it for Week 10! I feel extremely confident in this card and I think this is the one that turns it all around. And, if not, you know the drill: I’m just not going to talk about it.
