College basketball is back, and so is “CBB With Danny Z.” Try to contain your excitement (I’m genuinely psyched that college hoops is back, but I understand that many people don’t even realize college basketball exists until February or March).
Last season, we kicked off a series comparing the preseason AP Top 25 with KenPom’s rankings, then checked back in December, January and March to see how those disagreements developed.
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KenPom deserves some credit for Vanderbilt last season. It ranked the Commodores 19th in the preseason, while the AP voters had them effectively 36th. Vanderbilt finished 27-9, earned a No. 5 seed and won an NCAA Tournament game. But KenPom also had Baylor 17th in the preseason. The Bears finished 17-17 and missed the tournament.
St. John’s was a reminder to be careful about declaring a winner in December. The AP’s preseason No. 5 team started 4-3, which initially made KenPom’s more cautious ranking of 16th look pretty smart. Then the Red Storm finished 30-7, reached the Sweet 16 as a No. 5 seed and pushed Duke in an 80-75 loss. The voters’ optimism looked considerably more reasonable by the end of the season.
The AP voters had their own problems with Creighton. They put the Bluejays 23rd in the preseason, while KenPom had them all the way down at 41st. Creighton finished 16–18 and missed the NCAA Tournament, settling for a trip to the College Basketball Crown. I’m guessing that wasn’t the postseason tournament those voters had in mind.
So, there’s a reason to keep track of these disagreements. This year, we’re giving ourselves a few more to follow. Alongside KenPom, I’m adding TeamRankings’ predictive ratings to the comparison, plus the Coaches Poll. Before we get too carried away arguing about humans versus computers, we should probably find out whether the humans agree with each other. Or the computers, for that matter.
The comparisons below use the preseason AP and Coaches polls and both analytics models’ ratings from the morning of November 1, before the season began.
The top of the board offers relatively little controversy. Both human polls put Florida first and Duke second. Both analytics models reverse that order. Illinois is third in both polls and fourth in both models. Everybody likes those three teams.
After that, things get more interesting. The blue-blood Kansas Jayhawks represent one of the biggest disagreements entering this season, and the surprising part is who likes them more.
It’s the computers.
Kansas is No. 17 in the AP Poll and tied for 18th in the Coaches Poll. KenPom has the Jayhawks fifth and TeamRankings puts them sixth.
I would have expected the voters to be higher on a historically great program like Kansas. Seeing both computers put the Jayhawks in the top six while neither human poll has them in the top 15 definitely caught me by surprise.
Iowa State is another team where we see major disagreement. The Cyclones were a No. 2 seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament but enter this season ranked 18th by the AP and tied for 14th with the coaches. KenPom has them sixth.
TeamRankings puts Iowa State 11th, higher than either human poll but below KenPom. The Cyclones’ defense helps explain KenPom’s optimism: he projects it to be the second-best unit in the country.
Alabama is another program getting more love from the models. The Crimson Tide are 20th in the AP Poll and tied for 18th in the Coaches Poll, compared with ninth in KenPom and 16th at TeamRankings. KenPom projects Alabama to have the nation’s fourth-best offense.
Houston rounds out that group. The Cougars are third in KenPom and seventh at TeamRankings, ahead of their placements in the AP Poll (10th) and Coaches Poll (eighth). KenPom gives Houston the top defensive projection in the country.
USC might be the best example of why this exercise is worth doing. Both groups of voters awarded the Trojans a preseason Top 25 ranking (21st by the AP and 22nd by the coaches), while neither model placed the Trojans inside the top 35. KenPom has them 37th, and TeamRankings puts them 40th.
Tennessee presents an even more interesting argument near the top of the polls. The Volunteers are eighth in the AP and ninth in the Coaches Poll. The analytics are considerably less impressed: 22nd in KenPom and 18th at TeamRankings.
If you followed last year’s series, that might sound a little backward. Tennessee was a KenPom favorite last preseason, sitting ninth in the model compared with 18th in the AP Poll. This time, the voters are the optimistic ones. For what it’s worth, the Volunteers reached the Elite Eight as a No. 6 seed before losing to top-seeded Michigan.
Arkansas belongs on the watch list, too. The Razorbacks are 12th in the AP Poll and 13th with the coaches, but KenPom places them 19th and TeamRankings has them 25th. The Razorbacks reached the Sweet 16 in 2026.
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BYU lands 25th in both human polls, while both models leave the Cougars outside the Top 25: 34th in KenPom and 30th at TeamRankings.
St. John’s offers another familiar disagreement: AP No. 13 and tied for 14th with the coaches, compared with 21st in KenPom and 17th at TeamRankings. Last preseason, the AP had the Red Storm fifth while KenPom ranked them 16th. The gap is smaller this time, but the voters are higher on St. John’s again.
Nebraska was one of the best stories in last year’s series because neither side saw the Huskers coming. They began outside KenPom’s top 50 without receiving a single preseason AP vote, then climbed into the top 15 of both rankings by our March update.
This year’s starting positions are very different. KenPom has Nebraska 15th and TeamRankings puts the Huskers 22nd. The human voters at least noticed Nebraska this year. The Cornhuskers are just outside both Top 25s, effectively 27th in the AP Poll and 26th in the Coaches Poll. Nebraska is coming off a 28-7 season that included the first Sweet 16 appearance in program history.
Ohio State is another unranked team KenPom likes, placing the Buckeyes 18th. TeamRankings has them 31st, though, which brings us to the complication with treating “the analytics” as a single opinion.
Vanderbilt should be familiar to anyone who read these columns last season. KenPom consistently liked the Commodores more than the AP voters did, and the same disagreement is back. Vanderbilt is 12th in KenPom, compared with 24th in the AP Poll and 21st with the coaches.
After following these rankings last season, I think the humans put more weight on how teams finished the previous year. Vanderbilt didn’t make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, and I suspect that’s part of why the voters aren’t as high on the Commodores as KenPom is.
TeamRankings has Vanderbilt 24th, exactly where the AP puts the Commodores, so KenPom is sort of on an island here with its optimism for the Commodores in 2026-27.
UConn gives us a different split. The Huskies are fourth in the AP Poll and fifth in the Coaches Poll. That’s not surprising considering UConn is coming off a national championship game appearance and won back-to-back titles in 2023 and 2024.
KenPom isn’t as high on Dan Hurley’s squad, though, and ranks them 11th. This seems like a slam-dunk case of the humans being on board with a perennial powerhouse while the analytics see a team set to take a step back.
Except TeamRankings has UConn third, making the model more optimistic than either human poll.
Louisville offers a smaller version of the same argument. Both human polls have the Cardinals 11th, between KenPom at 16th and TeamRankings at ninth.
We’ll revisit these starting points as the season develops and see whether the humans or the computers are better at projecting how the season will play out. We’ll also see whether one model outperforms the other and whether the coaches do a better job than the media.
Want something included in the next “CBB With Danny Z”? Email me at dan.zaksheske@outkick.com or find me on X: @RealDanZak.
