Most sports fans don’t start paying attention to college basketball until February or March, and that’s unfortunate. One thing the sport does really well is pack the early-season slate with massive matchups, thanks to events like the Champions Classic and the ACC/SEC Challenge.
The Tuesday night slate features three Top 25 matchups, including a showdown between No. 5 Michigan State and No. 2 Duke at the United Center in Chicago as part of the State Farm Champions Classic.
Let’s dive into a fantastic early-season slate of college hoops.
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Spread: Duke -7.5, Total: 145.5
7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Tom Izzo has been doing this long enough that it’s easy to take him for granted. I don’t. For my money, he’s the best coach in history at getting the most out of his teams. This season, he also has one of the best point guards in the country, which certainly makes the job easier.
Michigan State went 27-8 and reached the Sweet 16 last season, and the Spartans bring back Jeremy Fears Jr., who averaged 15.2 points and led the nation with 9.4 assists per game. Forward Coen Carr also returns after averaging 12 points and 5.4 rebounds. The concern is up front, where Izzo has to replace starting big men Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper.
Duke, meanwhile, went 35-3 last season before its run ended in the Elite Eight on a miracle buzzer-beater by UConn’s Braylon Mullins. The Blue Devils lost their two leading scorers, Cameron Boozer and Isaiah Evans, to the NBA. Normally, that would qualify as a pretty serious problem. At Duke, it mostly means somebody else gets to become a household name.
Jon Scheyer brings back four of his top six scorers: Patrick Ngongba II, Caleb Foster, Dame Sarr and Cameron’s twin brother, Cayden Boozer. He also added Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell to the backcourt. Ngongba just scored 28 points against Coastal Carolina, while Cayden Boozer handed out 12 assists.
The analytics love Duke, as usual. Both TeamRankings and KenPom’s Nov. 1 preseason ratings placed Duke first. But don’t sleep on Sparty; TeamRankings and KenPom rated Michigan State eighth entering the season.
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The key to this matchup is whether Fears can consistently create good shots against Duke’s strong defense and whether Michigan State’s rebuilt frontcourt can handle Duke’s size. The Spartans have an experienced floor general who should keep them organized, but this is a considerable jump from opening the season against Quinnipiac and Toledo.
One inconvenient detail for my Izzo appreciation speech: he’s 3-15 against Duke. Apparently, the Blue Devils aren’t nearly as impressed with him as I am.
Spread: Illinois -2.5, Total: 166.5
8:00 p.m. ET, Peacock
I’m a huge fan of Texas Tech head coach Grant McCasland, and I think he’s the most underrated coach in the country. He’s taken the Red Raiders to the NCAA Tournament in each of his first three seasons, including an Elite Eight appearance in 2025. He took over in 2023 after a 16-16 season under Mark Adams and immediately got the Red Raiders back into the NCAA Tournament.
Last season ended at 23-11 with a second-round loss to Alabama, but Tech played the tournament without star forward JT Toppin after he tore his ACL in February. Toppin is back on the roster this season, although he’s still recovering and has said he’s targeting a return by the end of December. The Red Raiders also lost point guard Christian Anderson to the NBA after he averaged 18.5 points and 7.4 assists. That’s a lot of offense to replace while waiting for your best big man to get healthy.
Fortunately, McCasland has other options. Sharpshooter Donovan Atwell returns after making 130 three-pointers last season, and Darrion Williams is back after spending a year at NC State. Yes, he left Texas Tech and then returned to Texas Tech. College basketball in the transfer portal and NIL era is weird like that.
The new backcourt features Cruz Davis and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, who both averaged more than 20 points last season at Hofstra and UNLV, respectively. Gibbs-Lawhorn also spent his first two college seasons at Illinois, so there should be some familiar faces on the other bench.
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And that other bench has plenty of talent. Illinois went 28-9 and reached its first Final Four since 2005 last season, with a roster that gave Brad Underwood good reason to keep recruiting overseas. As I wrote last March, European recruiting helped Underwood build that Final Four roster.
“This is the most fun I’ve ever had coaching a team,” Underwood told OutKick’s Dan Dakich last year. “We don’t have bad practices because the truly great thing is they are competitive as heck. They show up, they love ball, they love to work, [and] they love to compete.”
Several of those players are back, including David Mirkovic and the Ivisic brothers, Tomislav and Zvonimir. Andrej Stojakovic also returns, giving Illinois a substantial amount of experience from that tournament run. The departures of guards Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell leave important roles to fill, but Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks and freshman Quentin Coleman give Underwood new backcourt scoring options.
As we covered in last week’s rankings comparison, both analytics models placed Illinois fourth. The expectations are justified, although Mirkovic is sidelined following foot surgery and an appendectomy, and forward Jake Davis is also out with a shoulder injury. So, neither team is bringing its full roster to this one.
Illinois has scored 232 points in its first two games. That’s not a typo, although FDU and Penn probably wish it were. Now the Illini take that offense into Lubbock, where Texas Tech has won 48 consecutive nonconference home games.
Spread: Kansas -4.5, Total: 158.5
9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
This is the matchup that brings us back to last week’s humans-versus-computers discussion. Kansas opened at No. 17 in the AP Poll, fifth in KenPom and sixth at TeamRankings. Usually, a program with “Jayhawks” across the front of its jerseys doesn’t need much help getting attention. This year, the computers were considerably more enthusiastic than the voters.
Neither program had the March it wanted last season. Kansas finished 24-11 and Kentucky went 22-14, with both exiting in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. For blue bloods like the Jayhawks and Wildcats, that’s nothing short of incredibly disappointing.
Kansas lost Darryn Peterson to the NBA and big man Flory Bidunga to Louisville, but Bill Self has another highly touted freshman in Tyran Stokes, the nation’s top recruit. Returning wing Tre White provides experience and scoring, while Purdue transfer Trey Kaufman-Renn gives the Jayhawks a proven interior option after averaging 14.2 points and 8.3 rebounds last season.
There’s also a major new problem: returning guard Melvin Council Jr. broke his foot in practice Monday and is out. Council averaged 12.7 points and 5.1 assists last season, so Kansas is losing an experienced playmaker right before its first major test. Freshman Taylen Kinney and Toledo transfer Leroy Blyden Jr. figure to take on more responsibility. Nothing like stepping into the spotlight against Kentucky inside a 20,000-seat United Center on national television.
The Wildcats have done plenty of rebuilding themselves. Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen are gone, while center Malachi Moreno and wing Kam Williams are among the returnees. Mark Pope added Washington guard Zoom Diallo and Furman’s Alex Wilkins, but the name casual fans should learn is Milan Momcilovic.
The Iowa State transfer made 136 three-pointers and shot 48.7% from deep last season. Read that again. The kid made nearly half his three-point attempts playing in the Big 12 last year. And he introduced himself to Kentucky fans by hitting six threes and scoring 24 points in the opener against Manhattan.
Kentucky’s ability to spread the floor gives it a real opportunity here, especially against a Kansas team adjusting to Council’s absence. The concern is whether the Wildcats can get enough stops after allowing James Madison to score 80 points Friday. Stokes and Kaufman-Renn present a different set of problems, and Kansas should have opportunities to attack inside.
For me, the interesting part is how Kansas handles possessions without its veteran guard and how Kentucky handles a team that can punish it in the paint.
And if you’re one of those fans waiting until March to start watching college basketball, you’re going to miss a pretty good Tuesday night.
