Week 9 opens with one of the strangest prime-time setups of the season. Baltimore, a preseason AFC contender, is starting an undrafted rookie at home, and Jacksonville is laying nearly 10 points on the road. For pick’em players, that kind of mismatch creates very specific angles. Underdog is offering new users promo code FOXNEWS to play $10 and get $50 in bonus entries on Thursday Night Football.
The Ravens’ quarterback room has been wiped out. Lamar Jackson is on injured reserve after jamming his throwing thumb on the first snap in Buffalo, Tyler Huntley’s turf toe is reportedly season-ending, and Skylar Thompson is on IR. Joe Fagnano, an undrafted rookie with an ankle injury, gets the start on three days’ rest.
Jacksonville couldn’t have drawn a better spot. The Jaguars are 5-2, lead the AFC South and have outscored opponents by 85 points, the best mark in the league. They destroyed Indianapolis 42-7 last week, and Trevor Lawrence has 17 touchdown passes to four interceptions.
Odds are subject to change
The obvious pick’em plays are to fade Fagnano’s passing and back Lawrence’s. Those are fine, but the lines will reflect them. Here’s where the value might be hiding.
Trevor Lawrence passing yards (lower): This is the game-script play. If Jacksonville gets out to a big lead, the Jaguars have every reason to run the ball and protect their quarterback on a short week. Lawrence could throw two touchdowns in the first half and spend the fourth quarter handing off. His passing yards line will be set expecting a strong night, and a blowout could keep him under.
Joe Fagnano rushing yards (higher): A rookie facing a fierce pass rush is going to scramble. When the pocket collapses and nobody is open, young quarterbacks tend to tuck it and run. Fagnano’s rushing line should be set low given his limited experience and sore ankle, which makes the higher worth a look.
Joe Fagnano interceptions (higher): In his only extended action, Fagnano threw an interception and lost a fumble in about a half of football. Against a Jaguars defense that’s playing as well as anyone in the league, the odds of at least one more turnover through the air are strong.
Baltimore is 7-13 all-time when Jackson misses a game, and it’s lost three straight. Still, the Ravens have won three of the last five meetings with Jacksonville, and Thursday night football has a way of producing strange results. Building picks around game script rather than just star power is the sharper way to attack this one.
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