Updated Nov. 1:
We’re updating this forecast to move Kansas from Lean R to Toss-up, and Nebraska from Likely R to Lean R.
Kansas is a conservative stronghold, but Republicans are spending too much time and money relative to other states to conclude that Sen. Roger Marshall has an edge over Democrat Adam Hamilton.
The odds remain in Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts’ favor in Nebraska. A larger-than-expected swing against the GOP could open the door for independent Dan Osborn to pull off an upset.
We still consider Senate control a toss-up.
Seven states are most likely to decide the majority. On a good night for the Democrats, their ceiling rises to 55 seats. A good night for the Republicans could see them retain control with up to 52 seats.
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It seems like there are two electorates in these midterms.
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The first is frustrated with President Donald Trump and ready to reject Republicans. It includes growing numbers of independent, rural, and Hispanic voters who say they’ll vote for a Democrat.
That’s what the latest round of House polling shows, including a survey last week that had Democrats up 11 points on the generic ballot, and Fox’s most recent national poll.
The second electorate is wavering on Republicans but won’t necessarily hand Democrats the Senate. These are the voters in the Midwest and a few other places. They say they prefer the Democrat or Republican in their states by a point or two at most.
That’s the right conclusion from most of the battleground Senate polling.
How could both things be true? In other words, if Democrats have such a wide lead in the House, won’t the Senate fall too?
Both are true, and a big lead in the House doesn’t necessarily translate to the Senate. These voters are all in the same electorate, and they only seem divorced from each other because the House and Senate maps are so far apart this year.
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The president’s declining approval rating and Democratic advantages on the issues will likely deliver them the House, and possibly by many seats.
Those advantages have also allowed the blue team to play in a lot of Senate races that Republicans thought were unreachable, but only to the point of making them battlegrounds.
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The road to a Senate majority goes through several states that Trump won by 11 points or more. Democrats can win any of these races. If Republicans turn out and stay loyal to their party, the climb for the left will be steep.
That’s why the Senate is a toss-up. Voters could give Democrats a majority, and maybe with several seats to spare. They could also let the Republicans keep control.
We’ll find out next week.
In his 11-year political career, President Donald Trump has triumphed over almost all of the threats to his power. The exception was the coronavirus pandemic, which was the top issue for voters in the 2020 election and ushered in the Biden presidency.
It was also one of the few threats that Trump has faced from abroad.
This time, Trump and the Republicans face a new foreign opponent: Iran. The administration’s decision to start joint U.S.-Israeli military strikes against the nation in February has cast a shadow over the GOP.
First, it has impacted Trump’s approval rating, which will decide the fate of many congressional Republicans and has fallen since the war began. It was 44% in the last pre-war survey and sits at 36% now.
The war has also given Democrats advantages on the top issues. In Fox’s October survey, Iran played a role in four issues that more than two-thirds of voters said they were concerned about: inflation (85%), gas prices (83%), government leadership (79%), and the war in Iran itself (75%).
Most voters said they preferred the Democrats to handle those issues: 16 points on inflation, 12 points on gas prices, 11 points on leadership, and 9 points on foreign policy.
Still, voters are not convinced that the Senate should change hands.
That comes down to the territory. Trump won seven of the 11 battleground states in 2024, and seven of them by double digits. That includes Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas.
Democrats don’t need to win all of those states to take the Senate, but it’s hard to see how they get to 51 seats without at least two of them.
While former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leads in Ohio, the other states are close. Turnout, a polling error in either direction, or both could decide them.
There’s also a lot of undecided vote. In Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, three states with recent high-quality polling, an average of 10% of voters say they haven’t decided who they will support or won’t support the major candidates.
Any guess on how those voters will break at the ballot box is only a guess. All we know from prior results is that the overall electorate leans conservative, so the Democrats have the tougher assignment to bring them over to their side (or keep them at home).
There are far fewer undecided voters in Texas, where last week’s Fox News Poll showed a tied race at 49%-49%.
If Democrats only win two Trump-won battlegrounds, they’ll need to win three other races where former Vice President Harris delivered single-digit victories in 2024: Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.
Democrats are ahead in the latter two. Maine could go either way. While Democrats win its presidential races, it could just as easily be considered a Republican state when Susan Collins is on the ballot.
Both parties are short of a majority in this forecast. Democrats are favored in 48 seats and Republicans are ahead in 45.
On a good night for Democrats, the party would win most or all the toss-ups, taking the majority with up to 55 seats. In that scenario, other competitive states would also come into focus, including Nebraska, and possibly Mississippi.
A good night for the Republicans would see them simply hold on to most of the states they already have, up to a ceiling of 52 seats. The party also has opportunities to flip a couple of states, including Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Five states have moved in Power Rankings forecasts this week.
In Ohio, Brown has enjoyed a lead in three Fox News polls this year, including last week’s survey, which had him five points ahead of Republican incumbent Sen. Jon Husted at 52%-47%.
Ohio voters are very familiar with Brown, having sent him to the Senate three times. That has made it hard for Husted to campaign on socialism and woke politics, themes that Republicans elsewhere see as their strongest cards to play.
Ohio moves from Toss-up to Lean D.
(“Lean D” means the Democrat has an edge but it’s still a highly competitive race. We define every ranking and the process for setting them on FoxNews.com.)
As this week’s Power Rankings previously reported, Republicans already viewed this as an uncomfortably close race. That belief is now widely shared.
The president headed back there to help Sen. Darline Graham in the Upstate, where she underperformed in her primary runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman.
South Carolina moves from Lean R to Toss-up.
Kansas is a conservative stronghold, but Republicans are spending too much time and money relative to other states to conclude that Sen. Roger Marshall has an edge over Democrat Adam Hamilton.
Kansas moves from Lean R to Toss-up.
The odds remain in Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts’ favor in Nebraska. A larger-than-expected swing against the GOP could open the door for independent Dan Osborn to pull off an upset.
Nebraska moves from Likely R to Lean R.
Mississippi is a Republican stronghold, but Trump’s decision to rally there over other deep red states is a sign that the party thinks it’s competitive.
GOP Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith faces Democratic District Attorney Scott Colom in a race where protein choice has become a breakout issue.
Mississippi moves from Solid R to Likely R.
Democrats are still likely to flip the House this November, and in this forecast, they’re predicted to take at least 223 seats.
Since a good night for the Democrats would see them take most of the toss-up races, they could end up with as many as 240 seats.
(On a great Democratic night, the party would pick up most of the Lean R districts as well, taking them as high as 252 seats.)
Republicans have 195 seats in their columns. A good night for them would take that total up to around 212. That’s six short of a majority, but enough to make life difficult for the next Democratic House Speaker, who would have to balance the demands of the moderate and far-left wings of the party.
Nineteen more races have shifted in the Democrats’ direction this week, all on the same themes outlined in the last House update: national and district polling, top-of-the-ticket strength, and rural voter erosion.
The earliest-closing districts on election night will give some sense of the House’s future. Keep an eye on Kentucky’s 6th district, which covers Lexington and a large central area of the state. Trump won here by 15 points in the last presidential election. Thanks to a combination of left-leaning college voters and farmers grappling with higher costs, it looks close this cycle. The district moves from Lean R to Toss-up.
Finally, Ohio’s gubernatorial race is also on the move. The campaign between Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy was the top story in politics last week after Ramaswamy ran an ad featuring Acton’s mother, who called her daughter a liar.
Acton has been estranged from her mother since age 12, when she says she and her brother left her family home because her mother’s husband was sexually abusing her. Acton’s brother now appears in a response ad discussing their family history.
This ratings change is less about the response to the ad (Ramaswamy and President Trump are supportive of the commercial; most others including Husted and Governor Mike DeWine are against it) than it is about the fact that the Ramaswamy campaign felt the need to run it.
While Ramaswamy sat only two points behind Acton in last week’s Fox poll, he’s an average of seven points behind in other high-quality polls since September.
The businessman and onetime presidential hopeful has struggled in favorability ratings throughout his political career. This ad is unlikely to help.
The Ohio governor’s race moves from Toss-up to Lean D.
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Fox News’ special coverage of the 2026 midterm elections begins at 6pm ET next Tuesday, November 3, anchored by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum. Tune in for the latest race calls and projections for control of the House and Senate from the Fox News Decision Desk.
